The Communicatorium

Black Friday Success – short run, long run or no run?

Black Friday 2008 has come and gone, but we are still in the throes of the big shopping weekend, as financial analysts and marketing managers across the country wait to see what kind of return on investment in advertising and promotions retailers will see. Last year, the Friday, Saturday and Sunday following Thanksgiving saw 147 million shoppers shelling out the bucks and carrying off bagsful of treasures. Data so far this year show a much lighter turnout, though we don’t know yet if it is 19 million fewer than last year, as the National Retail Federation expected. Tracy Mullin, president and CEO of the NRF, said, “This could be the most heavily promotional Black Friday in history.”

According to ShopLocal, retailers have increased their sale offers by about 21% over last year’s Black Friday sales period. JCPenney, for example, is offering 20% more specials than last year as part of its “biggest day-after-Thanksgiving sale in company history.” Forever 21 fashion retailer is hoping to draw shoppers in with a big giveaway, while playing on consumers’ patriotic sympathies with its invitation to “Join us in supporting the American auto industry! Register to win a brand new 09 Saturn Sky!” Hibbet Sports is offering the MVP Rewards Program to cheer consumers on and reward them for purchases with “points and free stuff.”

So how will everyone know if the sales and sweepstakes were successful? In the short run, we’ll soon be able to look at numbers on store traffic, sales volume, and average purchase value. In the long run, however, retailers may feel unexpected effects. Price-based marketing communications can often weaken a brand over time. But wait – aren’t the discounters supposed to be the big winners this Christmas shopping season? Ah, but WalMart and the Dollar Store and their ilk have built their brand identities around low prices. What happens when prolonged and repeated sales lead consumers to associate discounts with Macy’s or BMW? There are some ways to beat the price positioning game, as Jack Trout suggests: compare cost of purchase to cost of ownership for high performing products, or boldly take the position of “Yes, we’re more expensive, and don’t you get what you pay for?” Let the consumer decide if that’s quality or image. Tiffany’s, anyone?

So have you ventured into the retail arena in the past few days? Have you found any great promotions or great brand stories?